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posted by [personal profile] emperor at 03:06pm on 08/05/2015 under
Well, that was depressing, wasn't it? The opinion polls got things very wrong, and the exit poll (that seemed really unlikely at 10pm) was not far off. So all the early-evening talk about legitimacy and what parties might want what for coalitions was all moot.

Labour didn't lose because of the SNP (even if they'd beaten the SNP in every seat they contested, the Tories would still have a majority); they lost because they didn't make any impact on the Tories in England & Wales. The Libdems have been punished badly for the coalition; their votes have mostly gone to UKIP (!) although they were unable to turn those votes into seats, instead the Labour and Conservatives roughly split the LD casualties.

It's odd to paint this as a vote of confidence in the government (as some people have been doing) - while the Tories have gained, the previous government (Tory & LD) have lost heavily. Sadly, I suspect the SNP bloc will struggle to achieve much of note in the Commons - David Cameron seems more likely to move Right to keep his backbenchers happy rather than try and reach across the House for support.

I wonder if the SNP will consider another independence referendum if they do similarly well at the next Holyrood elections? If the new government pushes through "English votes for English laws" and appears to disenfranchise the SNP bloc even more, that might stir up the independence argument in Scotland. I would be sad to see Scotland go.

The other referendum is going to be on the EU. I'm really worried that we'll vote "out", which I think would be terrible. So I will be hoping to get involved in the pro-EU campaign in some form (I've heard some early noises in this direction already - get in touch if you want to hear about that). I wonder if an independent Scotland would try and retain the UK's EU membership if we voted "out" down South?

I'm also really worried about a lot of the Tories proposals around benefits, immigration, human rights, housing, etc. Hopefully the opposition can work together to try and ameliorate at least some of these. I hope that Labour will decide that they should move Left rather than trying to out-Tory the Tories, but only time will tell...
There are 20 comments on this entry. (Reply.)
 
posted by [identity profile] parrot-knight.livejournal.com at 03:28pm on 08/05/2015
I think Labour need to reject UK-level state socialism in the form to which they are still wedded, but that doesn't necessarily mean a move to the right, rather a reconceptualisation of what they are about. I think the Liberal Democrats will explore the same area.
 
posted by [identity profile] wpadmirer.livejournal.com at 03:39pm on 08/05/2015
Different names, but depressingly like the USA's mid-term elections. One wonders how people can be so wrong-headed about things.
gerald_duck: (frontal)
posted by [personal profile] gerald_duck at 10:26pm on 08/05/2015
Maybe the electorate has a problem with voting for people who don't respect them and call them wrong instead of listening to their views?
 
posted by [identity profile] wpadmirer.livejournal.com at 11:03pm on 08/05/2015
Maybe the electorate doesn't think at all.
 
posted by [identity profile] kerrypolka.livejournal.com at 11:23pm on 08/05/2015
This seems unlikely considering precedent.
hooloovoo_42: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] hooloovoo_42 at 06:26pm on 08/05/2015
I truly can't believe that the people who voted UKIP were previously LibDem voters. The two views are poles apart. I can believe that former LD voters switched to the Cons (but only as a push) and the Cons went to UKIP.

I agree the SNP will get nowhere at Westminster. Just because they have more than 50 seats doesn't mean that anyone will take a blind bit of notice of them. The Cons have an overall majority, so can tell the SNP to go forth and multiply.
 
posted by [identity profile] kerrypolka.livejournal.com at 07:16pm on 08/05/2015
I know at least one person (and have heard of one more) who said they were wavering between UKIP and Green, which took me a while to process but I think I understand now. (Not agree with, but comprehend.) I think it's that UKIP has successfully sold itself as the working-class anti-establishment vote - both of which, for the record, I think are good things, but not when they're coupled with racism and fascism. UKIP is collecting voters who are frustrated with how small the difference seems between two big pro-austerity parties mostly made up of people who went to Oxbridge and immediately went into political jobs. I think it's possible a lot of those people would have voted Lib Dem before, but not after the experience of the coalition government.
hooloovoo_42: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] hooloovoo_42 at 09:06pm on 08/05/2015
I suppose I vote LibDem because it's what I believe in, rather than as a protest. I just can't comprehend someone equating a vote for UKIP as a vote for someone other than Con/Lab. I know why the Kippers have managed to get into so many people's heads, but the "all those nasty furriners coming here and nicking our jobs" line isn't the same as "I don't like the big parties, I'll vote LibDem".

I suppose I'm putting my views on other people and it doesn't compute!
 
posted by [identity profile] ilanin.livejournal.com at 07:19pm on 08/05/2015
The Lib Dems used to be the standard protest vote; they might win seats but they'd never be in goverment. Now they are (were) in government, so they aren't a protest vote any more - which is now UKIP's role.

The impregnability of the Conservative majority can be overstated somewhat. There are a substantial number of backbench Conservatives who very much don't trust David Cameron and may be reluctant to vote for Conservative policies on several issues. Of course, this is because they don't think he's right-wing enough; still, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of the time Cameron finds it easier to get Nick Clegg or Frank Field to vote for him than he does Peter Bone.

The SNP, though, they're not getting anything excepting maybe in terms of how the devolution settlement works out. They haven't really got anything to give, on any other issue - there's no way they can support the Conservatives on anything, after how they campaigned, so why would Cameron listen to them?
Edited Date: 2015-05-08 07:20 pm (UTC)
hooloovoo_42: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] hooloovoo_42 at 09:03pm on 08/05/2015
I agree that Cameron will have problems with his backbenchers now he doesn't have the LibDems to push his policies through. If a few of them revolt, he's going to be on a sticky wicket.
gerald_duck: (mallard)
posted by [personal profile] gerald_duck at 10:33pm on 08/05/2015
I'm anti-EU (which is far from the same thing as anti-Europe), socially liberal, fiscally tight and feel the Nordics have welfare and industrial relations about right. Whether that puts me in the UKIP or LibDem camp depends a very great deal on how I prioritise the various issues.

Eventually, with heavy heart I voted LibDem. Had I not been in a safe Conservative seat, my heart would have been much heavier, though.
emperor: (Phoenix)
posted by [personal profile] emperor at 11:21pm on 08/05/2015
sounds more like Green to me.
 
posted by [identity profile] kerrypolka.livejournal.com at 07:19pm on 08/05/2015
I'm also extremely worried about the EU referendum - it was top of the sad list of 'things I could imagine doing anything to help' I made today at lunch. I'd be very interested in campaigning on that.

I hope that Labour will decide that they should move Left rather than trying to out-Tory the Tories

Yeah, this is my second great worry. I've actually just joined Labour for that exact reason, to try to move the party properly left instead of what seemed to be a 'basically like the Tories but less convinced about it' campaign...
hooloovoo_42: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] hooloovoo_42 at 09:11pm on 08/05/2015
I remember the referendum for joining the Common Market. Pa was dead set against the idea, as he had family in the antipodes and thought it would reduce trade with the colonies.

My biggest fear with any new referendum is the total lack of understanding that will abound. It's not as though the newspapers are actually going to educate anyone on the benefits of being in the EU. Someone in the office today said "If we leave the EU, we won't get so many illegal immigrants coming across the channel." Because the French border police are really going to want to stop people leaving the country and travelling to a country with hefty social security payments.
 
posted by [identity profile] the-marquis.livejournal.com at 09:59pm on 08/05/2015
Yep. And sadly it is this level of media-led daftness that has caused this result and which is likely to make the EU a hard sell in a referendum.
gerald_duck: (female-mallard-frontal)
posted by [personal profile] gerald_duck at 10:37pm on 08/05/2015
That confusion cuts both ways, though. Whenever I ask pro-EU people why they like it, they normally mention things which are actually under the auspices of CoE, EFTA, Schengen, NATO, etc.
hooloovoo_42: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] hooloovoo_42 at 11:27pm on 08/05/2015
Which is exactly why we need a lot more actual facts about the pros and cons before being forced to make a decision.
emperor: (Phoenix)
posted by [personal profile] emperor at 11:21pm on 08/05/2015
Poke me if I don't email you about EU stuff in the next week or so.
 
posted by [identity profile] kerrypolka.livejournal.com at 11:24pm on 08/05/2015
Will do, thanks! :)
 
posted by [identity profile] teithiwr.livejournal.com at 02:19pm on 10/05/2015
Ugh, election results have been depressing all round. We had a parliamentary election a few weeks ago, and now we have a right-leaning government... :(

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