More politics, domestic this time.

[emperor]

I've read the extensive discussion on the previous post, even if I've not commented on much of it. My LJ readers seem not-bad at predicting the future, so it's time for you to have another go. The next election must be called by 03/06/2010, but will it be called earlier than that, and who will be PM at the time?

I appreciate "substantially earlier" is a bit woolly, but I think it'll be clear when the election is called if Labour have essentially had all of their 5 year term or been forced / decided to call an early election

[Poll #1411398]

Comments

[edith-the-hutt.livejournal.com]

The Lib Dems might conceivably prove part of a coalition government, although I have no idea who they'd do a deal with in the event of a hung parliament.

[sigisgrim.livejournal.com]

Yes, indeed they might. And I too can't think of a potential partner, hence my previous thoughts.

[edith-the-hutt.livejournal.com]

Hmmm... I'm not quite clear on what you're saying. To be clear, I believe the Lib Dems, in the event of a hung parliament would probably form a coalition government with one of the other major parties, I suspect they would require a few key concessions and guarantees but I think they'd do it. I have no idea which of the two parties they'd pick though, a few years ago I'd have said definitely Lib-Lab but now I'm not so sure.

[hoiho.livejournal.com]

I'm not so sure; given their ultimately unhappy experience of the two-term Lib-Lab coalition in the Scottish parliament, I suspect they'd shy away from full coalition.

But they might be persuaded to be loose allies of a minority government - much as they, and the Greens, are in the current SNP minority-administration in the Scottish parliament. Which is working surprisingly well. Of course, it's bulwarked by a fixed-term that is sadly lacking in Westminster.

[sigisgrim.livejournal.com]

What I was trying to say was that Lib Dems could form part of a coalition, but I don't want to guess who the other parties might be. The problem really is that Labour and Conservative are now more like each other than either of them was like the Lib Dems a decade or two ago. So I feel a Lib-Lab or a Lib-Con pact is now rather unlikely. However, which of the other parties would have sufficient in common with the Lib Dems and have enough MPs for an alliance to gain a working majority is rather unclear.

[burkesworks.livejournal.com]

I have no idea who they'd do a deal with in the event of a hung parliament.

AFAIK the official answer is "nobody".

[uisgebeatha.livejournal.com]

They already did in Scotland. Then they decided not to share their toys with the SNP. :P

[wellinghall.livejournal.com]

although I have no idea who they'd do a deal with in the event of a hung parliament

Whoever would give them a voice in government.