emperor: (Phoenix)
emperor ([personal profile] emperor) wrote2015-05-08 03:06 pm
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Bother, said Pooh

Well, that was depressing, wasn't it? The opinion polls got things very wrong, and the exit poll (that seemed really unlikely at 10pm) was not far off. So all the early-evening talk about legitimacy and what parties might want what for coalitions was all moot.

Labour didn't lose because of the SNP (even if they'd beaten the SNP in every seat they contested, the Tories would still have a majority); they lost because they didn't make any impact on the Tories in England & Wales. The Libdems have been punished badly for the coalition; their votes have mostly gone to UKIP (!) although they were unable to turn those votes into seats, instead the Labour and Conservatives roughly split the LD casualties.

It's odd to paint this as a vote of confidence in the government (as some people have been doing) - while the Tories have gained, the previous government (Tory & LD) have lost heavily. Sadly, I suspect the SNP bloc will struggle to achieve much of note in the Commons - David Cameron seems more likely to move Right to keep his backbenchers happy rather than try and reach across the House for support.

I wonder if the SNP will consider another independence referendum if they do similarly well at the next Holyrood elections? If the new government pushes through "English votes for English laws" and appears to disenfranchise the SNP bloc even more, that might stir up the independence argument in Scotland. I would be sad to see Scotland go.

The other referendum is going to be on the EU. I'm really worried that we'll vote "out", which I think would be terrible. So I will be hoping to get involved in the pro-EU campaign in some form (I've heard some early noises in this direction already - get in touch if you want to hear about that). I wonder if an independent Scotland would try and retain the UK's EU membership if we voted "out" down South?

I'm also really worried about a lot of the Tories proposals around benefits, immigration, human rights, housing, etc. Hopefully the opposition can work together to try and ameliorate at least some of these. I hope that Labour will decide that they should move Left rather than trying to out-Tory the Tories, but only time will tell...
hooloovoo_42: (Default)

[personal profile] hooloovoo_42 2015-05-08 06:26 pm (UTC)(link)
I truly can't believe that the people who voted UKIP were previously LibDem voters. The two views are poles apart. I can believe that former LD voters switched to the Cons (but only as a push) and the Cons went to UKIP.

I agree the SNP will get nowhere at Westminster. Just because they have more than 50 seats doesn't mean that anyone will take a blind bit of notice of them. The Cons have an overall majority, so can tell the SNP to go forth and multiply.

[identity profile] kerrypolka.livejournal.com 2015-05-08 07:16 pm (UTC)(link)
I know at least one person (and have heard of one more) who said they were wavering between UKIP and Green, which took me a while to process but I think I understand now. (Not agree with, but comprehend.) I think it's that UKIP has successfully sold itself as the working-class anti-establishment vote - both of which, for the record, I think are good things, but not when they're coupled with racism and fascism. UKIP is collecting voters who are frustrated with how small the difference seems between two big pro-austerity parties mostly made up of people who went to Oxbridge and immediately went into political jobs. I think it's possible a lot of those people would have voted Lib Dem before, but not after the experience of the coalition government.
hooloovoo_42: (Default)

[personal profile] hooloovoo_42 2015-05-08 09:06 pm (UTC)(link)
I suppose I vote LibDem because it's what I believe in, rather than as a protest. I just can't comprehend someone equating a vote for UKIP as a vote for someone other than Con/Lab. I know why the Kippers have managed to get into so many people's heads, but the "all those nasty furriners coming here and nicking our jobs" line isn't the same as "I don't like the big parties, I'll vote LibDem".

I suppose I'm putting my views on other people and it doesn't compute!

[identity profile] ilanin.livejournal.com 2015-05-08 07:19 pm (UTC)(link)
The Lib Dems used to be the standard protest vote; they might win seats but they'd never be in goverment. Now they are (were) in government, so they aren't a protest vote any more - which is now UKIP's role.

The impregnability of the Conservative majority can be overstated somewhat. There are a substantial number of backbench Conservatives who very much don't trust David Cameron and may be reluctant to vote for Conservative policies on several issues. Of course, this is because they don't think he's right-wing enough; still, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of the time Cameron finds it easier to get Nick Clegg or Frank Field to vote for him than he does Peter Bone.

The SNP, though, they're not getting anything excepting maybe in terms of how the devolution settlement works out. They haven't really got anything to give, on any other issue - there's no way they can support the Conservatives on anything, after how they campaigned, so why would Cameron listen to them?
Edited 2015-05-08 19:20 (UTC)
hooloovoo_42: (Default)

[personal profile] hooloovoo_42 2015-05-08 09:03 pm (UTC)(link)
I agree that Cameron will have problems with his backbenchers now he doesn't have the LibDems to push his policies through. If a few of them revolt, he's going to be on a sticky wicket.
gerald_duck: (mallard)

[personal profile] gerald_duck 2015-05-08 10:33 pm (UTC)(link)
I'm anti-EU (which is far from the same thing as anti-Europe), socially liberal, fiscally tight and feel the Nordics have welfare and industrial relations about right. Whether that puts me in the UKIP or LibDem camp depends a very great deal on how I prioritise the various issues.

Eventually, with heavy heart I voted LibDem. Had I not been in a safe Conservative seat, my heart would have been much heavier, though.