Well, that was depressing, wasn't it? The opinion polls got things very wrong, and the exit poll (that seemed really unlikely at 10pm) was not far off. So all the early-evening talk about legitimacy and what parties might want what for coalitions was all moot.
Labour didn't lose because of the SNP (even if they'd beaten the SNP in every seat they contested, the Tories would still have a majority); they lost because they didn't make any impact on the Tories in England & Wales. The Libdems have been punished badly for the coalition; their votes have mostly gone to UKIP (!) although they were unable to turn those votes into seats, instead the Labour and Conservatives roughly split the LD casualties.
It's odd to paint this as a vote of confidence in the government (as some people have been doing) - while the Tories have gained, the previous government (Tory & LD) have lost heavily. Sadly, I suspect the SNP bloc will struggle to achieve much of note in the Commons - David Cameron seems more likely to move Right to keep his backbenchers happy rather than try and reach across the House for support.
I wonder if the SNP will consider another independence referendum if they do similarly well at the next Holyrood elections? If the new government pushes through "English votes for English laws" and appears to disenfranchise the SNP bloc even more, that might stir up the independence argument in Scotland. I would be sad to see Scotland go.
The other referendum is going to be on the EU. I'm really worried that we'll vote "out", which I think would be terrible. So I will be hoping to get involved in the pro-EU campaign in some form (I've heard some early noises in this direction already - get in touch if you want to hear about that). I wonder if an independent Scotland would try and retain the UK's EU membership if we voted "out" down South?
I'm also really worried about a lot of the Tories proposals around benefits, immigration, human rights, housing, etc. Hopefully the opposition can work together to try and ameliorate at least some of these. I hope that Labour will decide that they should move Left rather than trying to out-Tory the Tories, but only time will tell...
Labour didn't lose because of the SNP (even if they'd beaten the SNP in every seat they contested, the Tories would still have a majority); they lost because they didn't make any impact on the Tories in England & Wales. The Libdems have been punished badly for the coalition; their votes have mostly gone to UKIP (!) although they were unable to turn those votes into seats, instead the Labour and Conservatives roughly split the LD casualties.
It's odd to paint this as a vote of confidence in the government (as some people have been doing) - while the Tories have gained, the previous government (Tory & LD) have lost heavily. Sadly, I suspect the SNP bloc will struggle to achieve much of note in the Commons - David Cameron seems more likely to move Right to keep his backbenchers happy rather than try and reach across the House for support.
I wonder if the SNP will consider another independence referendum if they do similarly well at the next Holyrood elections? If the new government pushes through "English votes for English laws" and appears to disenfranchise the SNP bloc even more, that might stir up the independence argument in Scotland. I would be sad to see Scotland go.
The other referendum is going to be on the EU. I'm really worried that we'll vote "out", which I think would be terrible. So I will be hoping to get involved in the pro-EU campaign in some form (I've heard some early noises in this direction already - get in touch if you want to hear about that). I wonder if an independent Scotland would try and retain the UK's EU membership if we voted "out" down South?
I'm also really worried about a lot of the Tories proposals around benefits, immigration, human rights, housing, etc. Hopefully the opposition can work together to try and ameliorate at least some of these. I hope that Labour will decide that they should move Left rather than trying to out-Tory the Tories, but only time will tell...
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I agree the SNP will get nowhere at Westminster. Just because they have more than 50 seats doesn't mean that anyone will take a blind bit of notice of them. The Cons have an overall majority, so can tell the SNP to go forth and multiply.
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I suppose I'm putting my views on other people and it doesn't compute!
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The impregnability of the Conservative majority can be overstated somewhat. There are a substantial number of backbench Conservatives who very much don't trust David Cameron and may be reluctant to vote for Conservative policies on several issues. Of course, this is because they don't think he's right-wing enough; still, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of the time Cameron finds it easier to get Nick Clegg or Frank Field to vote for him than he does Peter Bone.
The SNP, though, they're not getting anything excepting maybe in terms of how the devolution settlement works out. They haven't really got anything to give, on any other issue - there's no way they can support the Conservatives on anything, after how they campaigned, so why would Cameron listen to them?
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Eventually, with heavy heart I voted LibDem. Had I not been in a safe Conservative seat, my heart would have been much heavier, though.
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I hope that Labour will decide that they should move Left rather than trying to out-Tory the Tories
Yeah, this is my second great worry. I've actually just joined Labour for that exact reason, to try to move the party properly left instead of what seemed to be a 'basically like the Tories but less convinced about it' campaign...
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My biggest fear with any new referendum is the total lack of understanding that will abound. It's not as though the newspapers are actually going to educate anyone on the benefits of being in the EU. Someone in the office today said "If we leave the EU, we won't get so many illegal immigrants coming across the channel." Because the French border police are really going to want to stop people leaving the country and travelling to a country with hefty social security payments.
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