AV turnout sweepstake [Matthew's Journal]

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antinomy has kindly offered a chocolate prize for the person who best predicts the turnout in the AV referendum next week. Since they can't run polls, I'm conducting the poll instead. The first poll below lets you select the outcome to the nearest 5% (and is viewable by everyone), the second free-entry box is visible only to me, and will be how the winner will be selected.

Voting closes "late" on the 4th of May - i.e.

antinomy will vote as late on the 4th May as they are actually awake, and I will discount any votes received after theirs. There may be a prize if you predict the outcome precisely. In the event of different turnout figures, I shall go with what the BBC report. My decision is final :-)

[Poll #1735403]

[Poll #1735404]

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There are 16 comments on this entry. (Reply.)

bugshaw has 20% more optimism than the median poll-taker!

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You do seem to be something of an outlier at the moment.

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Looks like I too am optimistic!

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I hope this is shared by 55% of the population!

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Just in case you and Sally are still deciding which way to vote: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiHuiDD_oTk

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Have you been paying any attention to my immensely partisan blog and facebook over the past couple of months? ;-)

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I'm curious as to how respondents are guessing and how many actually tried to calculate a sensible estimate.

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There's tasty chocolate to be won! Who wouldn't try to work it out?

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I'm curious as to how many tactically vote a wildly different value in the open poll then the closed poll to try to put off other voters.

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I can't help but think that the flaw in this plan is that we have only 20 numbers between 30 and 50, and yet 42 people voting in the sweepstake. What will anti do when 7 of us are right?

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I'll have to come up with something... perhaps extra chocolate?

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I approve of this idea!

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Only 20 numbers between 30 and 50?

Can I tease gently at this point?

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She's a mathmo and therefore cannot be expected to get mental arithmetic right!

Also, I think I gave my answer to 1dp, which means that if everyone does the same there are 201 numbers between 30.0 and 50.0

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Didn't you give your answer to one dp?

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where's my second preference option?

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Matthew's Journal

AV turnout sweepstake

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May