Matthew's Journal

There were rumours of disturbances in Coventry, but thankfully they seem to have been just rumours. Violence in Birmingham is a bit alarming, though. I hope all my friends in London (and elsewhere) are OK!

There's always a danger in commenting on ongoing events, that your comments end up a hostage to fortune. Still, much of what I've seen written so far has been rather unsatisfactory. In particular, it seems to me that whilst just dismissing the rioters as mindless thugs and suggesting the army should be called in is unsatisfactory, it also won't do to tell someone terrified by the violence that this is all about the uprising of a repressed underclass. I don't claim to be able to manage anything much more sophisticated here, but I think we need (regardless of our political persuasion) to resist narratives of these riots that suggest the cause is straightforward to explain[0].

I think it's fair to say that the causes of the rioting include: the shooting by police of Mark Duggan; the recently-exposed corruption in MPs, journalists, and the police; a feeling that the rich (bankers) caused the current economic woe and yet are escaping the hardships that result; a feeling that the government is systematically undermining the support for the poor; the enormous inequality in British society; herd behaviour; the feeling that the police are powerless to stop one looting shops; warm summer evenings; boredom.

If I'm even remotely correct, then we need to be able to both condemn the violence, and consider how some of the proximate causes of it might be addressed. Politicians will want to do what Maggie Thatcher did in the 80s, and dismiss the rioters as "simply criminal" and avoid looking hard at where society might be going wrong. They must rise above the easy rhetoric, but so too must those who would assign political motives to the rioters and ignore the unpleasant criminality that has been seen on the streets recently.

[0] I found myself, while writing this, continually trying to frame a theory of my own. Like many people, I want to make sense of what has happened. I want to talk about gross economic inequality and how we should address that; but I think that's for another post.

One of the things that has concerned me for a while with the thrust of government policy is its faith in the private sector (or, perhaps, its lack of faith in civil servants), and in the power of markets to make everything better. There's an assumption that government departments are large inefficient bureaucracies staffed by indolent jobsworth civil servants who are impossible to fire, whereas the power of the market means that companies can do the same jobs better and for less money. This lead to the privatization and marketization of utilities and the railways, and I think is underlying what looks rather like attempts to move towards markets and privatization in the NHS and university sectors.

One of the problems with markets is that they tend to value easy to measure things over things that are harder to quantify[0]. In healthcare, this seems likely to result in quality of care being sacrificed on the altar of driving down costs. The NHS Confederation agrees: "Economic theory predicts that price competition is likely to lead to declining quality where (as in healthcare) quality is harder to observe than price. Evidence from price competition in the 1990s internal market and in cost constrained markets in the USA confirms this, with falling prices and reduced quality, particularly in harder to observe measures". And, for all that some people in the US make a great deal of money out of healthcare, it's hard to see it as anything other than deeply dysfunctional on the whole. Even many UK doctors are against the proposed reforms, substantially because of their market-based nature[1].

In a similar vein, the government is trying to introduce a market element into higher education via variable tuition fees; there is also talk of encouraging more private input into the university sector, maybe even allowing companies to fund places at university for their chosen students. It seems likely that this is partly motivated by the successes of the big American private universities; but as this LRB article notes, even if you don't care a fig about public good, the US system doesn't deliver cost-effective excellence in Universities.

I appreciate that the boat has rather sailed, but I think it's time we realised that private enterprise may not be the best way to run services in the public interest, and that sometimes things that are hard to measure are more important than cold, hard cash.

[0] There is an ethical question here, too, of whether profit is the best motivation for, well, anything, but I think that's an aside for now
[1] http://www.bmj.com/content/342/bmj.d7.full [probably behind a pay-wall]

antinomy has kindly offered a chocolate prize for the person who best predicts the turnout in the AV referendum next week. Since they can't run polls, I'm conducting the poll instead. The first poll below lets you select the outcome to the nearest 5% (and is viewable by everyone), the second free-entry box is visible only to me, and will be how the winner will be selected.

Voting closes "late" on the 4th of May - i.e. antinomy will vote as late on the 4th May as they are actually awake, and I will discount any votes received after theirs. There may be a prize if you predict the outcome precisely. In the event of different turnout figures, I shall go with what the BBC report. My decision is final :-)

[Poll #1735403]

[Poll #1735404]

I must confess that both sides' campaign material about the AV referendum have been annoying me. They have tended to exaggerate their claims well beyond what might be considered reasonable, and I've seen a fair amount of why seems to be plain lying (e.g. the No camp's claim that we'll have to spend millions on electronic counting machines, or that no-where uses AV when our own MPs use it to elect leaders).

As a pleasing counterpoint to all this, I'd like to tip my hat to Dr Alan Renwick of the University of Reading. He's produced a nice report in the probable impact of AV, which seems clear and reasonably even-handed. There's a brief article on the BBC or his full briefing paper [PDF]. If you want to be more informed about the pros and cons of AV, then I recommend you read his article.

Personally, I'm more "No to FPTP" than "Yes to AV", but I see it as a step in the right direction, so will be voting for it.

Why is it OK to consider changing the law to allow the government to renege on promises it made to civil servants, when we're not considering doing similar to allow us to renege on, say, PFI deals?

Bishops have been in the news a bit recently. Firstly, it is reported that Jeffrey John is being considered for Southwark. Secondly, Synod is going to debate how women should become bishops, including a last-minute amendment proposed by the Archbishops of Canterbury and York.

Firstly, it's pretty clear to me that if Dr John is the best man for the job, his sexuality should not be a reason to block him from the post. It's not like he's the first gay CofE bishop - the current Bishop of Edmonton is gay, for example. Jeffrey John abides by the church's teaching, and was shoddily treated seven years ago when he nearly became Bishop of Reading. LBGT people still face discrimination and even violence in our society, and so it's important that the church doesn't succumb to homophobia about Dr John again.

Secondly, we are (hopefully soon) going to see female bishops in the CofE. The revision committee has proposed that parishes that don't want a female bishop be able to ask her to get a male bishop to perform episcopal functions (confirmations and the like) for them, and that this process will be enshrined as a statutory code of practice. As Watch point out, this is still discriminatory, although the Archbishops' amendment is even more so. Elsewhere (e.g. in Canada), Anglicans have more straightforwardly just made women bishops; I read a piece by one in the Church Crimes the other week, where she talked about dealing with the anti-women parishes in her diocese - she visits them for services without communion, and has found that it's been a way for relationships to develop. Synod should avoid enshrining discrimination against women into law - surely our example to a society that continues not to treat both genders equally should be that women and men are equal in the sight of God?

What ties both issues together, to me, is the need for the church to stand up and show that discrimination just won't do.

[with apologies to those unable to vote today, and those who have already voted or decided to vote and are fed up of exhortations to do so]

Do you care who runs the country? Vote!
Do you care if we spend billions on nuclear weapons? Vote!
Do you care how we treat people who come to this country to work? Vote!
Do you care whether or not we join the Euro? Vote!
Do you care if we build affordable housing? Vote!
Do you care if we build all over the green belt? Vote!
Do you care if the poor are taken care of? Vote!
Do you care about the equality of women? Vote!
Do you care if we keep burning oil until it all runs out? Vote!
Do you care if we spend millions on renewable energy sources? Vote!
Do you care about free education? Vote!
Do you care about the wars we engage in? Vote!
Do you care about how NHS spending is prioritised? Vote!
Do you care about human rights? Vote!
Do you care about public funding of the arts, museums, and other cultural institutions? Vote!
Do you care about how the internet is regulated? Vote!
Do you care about criminal justice? Vote!
Do you care about electoral reform? Vote!
Do you care about our society? Vote!
Do you care?

Resist the temptation to say "oh, they're all the same", or "I don't agree with any of them", or "my vote doesn't count". The people standing in your constituency are not all the same. You may well disagree with each of them on major issues (I certainly do!); does that really mean you cannot rank them at all? I suspect most constituencies have at least one odious nutjob standing; at least vote against them. If we end up with a hung parliament tonight, then the number of votes cast for each party might actually influence the negotiations that follow...

I have a certain amount of sympathy with the views expressed in this Grauniad blog entry. When ++Rowan is issuing statements condemning the election of a second homosexual bishop in the USA, but not issuing statements condemning the proposed criminalising of homosexuality in Uganda (including the death penalty for "aggravated" cases), nor the support of that law by Uganda's bishops, then it leaves a very unfortunate image of what the Church's priorities are. Surely protecting the already discriminated-against homosexual minority in Uganda from state oppression is the urgent priority?

I know drugs policy has been in the news a lot recently, and possibly there's a whole other post on scientific advice to government. Nonetheless, I have been of the opinion for a while that prohibition isn't the answer to "the drugs problem", despite having never partaken myself.

This short rant seems to cover quite a bit of the ground pretty well.

It seems that the UK screwed up, and so the Video Recordings Act 1984 is currently unenforceable (and will be for 3 months, while we formally notify the EU). The Minister for Culture and Tourism, Barbara Follett MP, wrote to the Director of Public Prosecutions, Keir Starmer QC, telling him this, and advising him to try and suppress this information. Wikileaks has the letter here.

ETA Beeb article